Earth System Impact Project
Abstract
In this study, we aim to advance our understanding of Earth system feedback loops by estimating interaction strengths among key components and calculating their contributions to
broader Earth system impacts. The research utilizes the large global dynamic vegetation model LPJmL model as a tool to simulate interactions between land cover change,
climate forcing, and water flow dynamics. By holding variables constant while varying others, we will quantify how changes in vegetation cover influence water runoff under
different scenarios of human activity and climate forcings. With this LPJmL simulations will be used to disentangle the effects of land cover change on climate (e.g.,
carbon exchange) from those mediated by feedbacks such as altered rainfall or temperature patterns.
The study builds upon previous work that analyzed vegetation type-specific interactions across multiple continents under various RCP scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) but will extend its scope by testing the robustness of interaction strength estimates using a broader range of climate models from the CMIP6 initiative. Additionally, we will incorporate interactions with other Earth system components, such as radiative effects on albedo or greenhouse gases beyond CO2, and explore feedbacks involving groundwater and surface water systems.
To assess the contributions of these interactions to broader Earth system impacts, we will employ an enhanced version of the matrix feedback method previously developed by
our lead investigator (Lade). While this approach is well-suited for linear equilibrium systems, it will be complemented with dynamical systems modeling to account for
potential nonlinearities and transient dynamics. The methodology will also incorporate weighting schemes that reflect environmental impacts across different regions, such as
the Köppen-Geiger climate zones or ecoregions.
