Title:	Regional Lagrangian dispersion simulations of invasive species with changing climate
DNr:	NAISS 2024/5-658
Project Type:	NAISS Medium Compute
Principal Investigator:	Sandra-Esther Brunnabend <sandra-esther.brunnabend@smhi.se>
Affiliation:	SMHI
Duration:	2025-01-01 – 2025-07-01
Classification:	10509 10501 10699
Homepage:	https://climateinvasives.gmbl.se/
Keywords:

Abstract

The capability of dispersal and survival of non-native species within the Kattegat and Skagerrak regions is highly impacted by projected water temperature, salinity and circulation changes within this century. Therefore, climate change induced spread of invasive species within this region is investigated within the Climate Invasives project to minimize the negative effects on marine protected areas. Dispersal and connectivity modelling will be applied, which includes ocean circulation modelling, trajectory studies of larvae and the calculation of connectivity matrices. Spatial connectivity information is crucial for marine spatial planning, such as for designing marine protected areas, or aqua farming. The main aim of this application is to perform an extensive ensemble of Lagrangian particle dispersion simulations of larvae of marine invasive species, which we apply computations resources for. The dispersal simulations are based on a physical ensemble of the previously performed ocean climate simulations forced with 3 different global circulation models (GCM) under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 conditions. Here, we simulate and compare a 30 year period in the future (2070-2099) with the historical period (1976-2005), to estimate probabilities of larvae dispersal within the different climate scenarios by computing connectivity matrices. The regional CMIP5 ocean climate simulations, needed for the dispersal simulation, have been performed on Bi, focusing on ocean physics and ocean biogeochemistry. Part of the ensemble simulation were executed on Tetralith. However, due to technical issues that have arisen with the start of the operating system Rocky Linux 9 and limited resources, the last ensemble member of the ocean climate simulations will not finish until the NAISS 2023/5-553 allocation ends. Therefore, we plan to finish this last member of the ocean climate scenario ensemble within this project as well. The results of the dispersal ensemble simulations and the corresponding connectivity information will be the basis for scientific publications with focus on survival and dispersal of invasive species within a changing climate. In addition, results will be used to inform stakeholders in order to support them in minimizing negative effects of invasive species arriving in the region of interest.