Title:	Future, policy-relevant scenarios with EC-Earth
DNr:	NAISS 2024/4-9
Project Type:	NAISS Large Storage
Principal Investigator:	Paul Miller <paul.miller@nateko.lu.se>
Affiliation:	Lunds universitet
Duration:	2025-01-01 – 2025-07-01
Classification:	10501 10507 10508
Homepage:	https://ec-earth.org/
Keywords:

Abstract

Climate change is a threat to societies and ecosystems worldwide, and policymakers and society at large need actionable information to inform mitigation and adaptation policies and strategies. Climate and Earth system models (ESMs) can provide this information, and ESM experiments inform many of the conclusions in scientific assessment reports underpinning policy, such as the regular Assessment Reports from the UN IPCC. We request an upgrade of our NAISS Medium Storage project NAISS 2024/6-242 to a Large Storage project, asking only for storage space and a file quota sufficient to carry out policy-relevant experiments with the EC-Earth ESM using computational resources from the linked NAISS Large Compute proposal NAISS 2024/1-12. In our role as Horizon Europe partners, we are committed to a series of ESM experiments that will examine the climate and carbon cycle’s response to overshooting policy-relevant temperature goals, net-zero emissions, and the feasibility and impact of land-based carbon dioxide removal. We also intend to contribute to the development of a next-generation ESM, EC-Earth4, which will be the ESM at the centre of Sweden’s climate modelling efforts ahead of, and in support of, the next IPCC report. EC-Earth is fast and scalable, but as an ESM it produces large output volumes. However, we will make careful use of the resources asked for to store and process only that data and model output necessary to meet our commitments. For this we conservatively estimate that we will need 200 Tb and a file quota of 60,000,000 files. Finally, we fully expect our experiments to contribute to high-impact publications where we guarantee NAISS acknowledgement for both computational resources and data storage.