S-CMIP: Swedish climate modelling and contributions to international projects
The central motivation for climate modeling is to describe the responses of the Earth system to changes in forcing and to understand its internal variability and related processes. Scientific progress in these areas and in the science of prediction and projection methods as well as more comprehensively describing the entire Earth system (including e.g. interactive vegetation, the carbon cycle, polar ice sheets) will enable actionable information on climate change in the fields of climate change adaptation (adjustment to a new climate) and mitigation (control of greenhouse gas emissions).
International climate simulations to address the above questions are coordinated largely under the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). The CMIP standards and infrastructure, such as data upload to CMIPs data grid (ESGF), are increasingly used for projects beyond CMIP as well, which is boosting international across-model climate studies. The 6th phase of CMIP has come to an end but developments from CMIP6 are continued and the updated CMIP6-models are used for additional simulations to further explore outcomes from CMIP6 and to perform more detailed process studies to further improve our understanding of the Earth system and its ongoing and future change in a range of national and international projects.
At the same time, development of the next generation of ESMs starts with a prospect of contributing to the next round of CMIP, CMIP7, as well as many international and national projects.
S-CMIP will carry out a number of numerical climate model simulations connected to research projects funded by EU-H2020, EU-HORIZON, VR and FORMAS. These cover understanding and modeling of processes in the Earth system with a particular focus on the risk of exceeding tipping points, development of a new generation of ESM, exploration of the predictability and uncertainty of climate change, millennium and paleo time scale studies, emission pathways that avoid climate tipping points, the fate of emitted carbon in the climate system, the understanding of climate extremes and regional processes in the future. All these projects are externally scientifically reviewed, are considered state of the art and are expected to generate publications by S-CMIP members.