Climate change for regional seas
Title: Climate change for regional seas
SNIC Project: SNIC 2020/2-14
Project Type: SNIC Large Storage
Principal Investigator: Christian Dieterich <christian.dieterich@smhi.se>
Affiliation: SMHI
Duration: 2020-07-01 – 2021-07-01
Classification: 10501 10503 10509
Homepage: https://www.smhi.se
Keywords:

Abstract

Dynamical downscaling is an important tool to understand the combined impact of changing climate and other anthropogenic drivers on coastal seas. We request data storage for regional climate simulations performed within a three-year project. In phase 1 (year 1), a regional coupled atmosphere-ocean model (RCM) for the Baltic Sea – North Sea region will be developed and applied in scenario simulations driven by the CMIP6 global model outputs. The RCM data will be used to produce scenarios for the ecosystem of the North Sea and the Baltic Sea under combined greenhouse gas concentration and socio-economic scenarios. In phase 2 (year 2 and 3), our downscaling approach will be extended to other coastal seas of different types that suffer today from oxygen depletion. We will answer the societally important questions whether climate change will lead to an extension of hypoxic areas in coastal seas and how far feasible nutrient load abatement strategies can counteract future hypoxia. The coastal systems examined are estuaries and river-dominated shelves, which currently cover more than 50% of the total hypoxic area in the coastal zone world-wide. For our modeling effort we ask for a disk space of 370 TB for phase 1 of this project. Under good conditions the regional models will produce this amount of data within one year.