NEMO_SCOBI
Abstract
Note: This proposal has been already submitted to SNIC large allocations. However, it was rejected with the recommendation to resubmit it to MEDIUM allocations. This is done hereby.
Today eutrophication is a severe threat to the Baltic Sea ecosystem. During recent decades, eutrophication-associated problems - such as deep water oxygen deficiency, the spreading of dead (de-oxygenized) bottom zones, increased frequency and intensity of cyanobacterial blooms - have been observed. Management and abatement of eutrophication is largely a matter of reducing the nutrient loading from land and atmosphere in the most cost-effective way. However, still a large uncertainty regarding the nutrient input from the atmosphere due to nitrogen fixing bacteria (cyanobactria) remains. This uncertainty is primarily related to the lacking life cycle of cyanobacteria in the current class of available ecosystem models.
To improve predictive skills of a current state of the art coupled hydrodynamic and ecosystem model we will implement a for the first time a cyanobacteria life cycle model into the existing 3D biogeochemical model RCO-SCOBI (Swedish Coastal and Ocean Biogeochemical model). We will use available historical data to evaluate and improve the models and to identify the major processes for harmful algae dynamics. In sensitivity simulations we will quantify the importance of anthropogenic activities during the past century. We will assess possible scenarios of future cyanobacteria blooms for defining actions and setting targets in policy making.
As scientific outcome we will track all important life cycle stages of harmful cyanobacteria, i.e. the resting stages, the germination stages and map their spatial patterns from the model resutls iin order to investigate if the life cycle may regulate the locations where blooms are initiated. We will perform cause and effect studies to elucidate the mechanisms causing high algae biomasses and large surface extensions of cyanobacteria blooms. The results from the project, will be discussed and disseminated to stakeholders, researchers and the public media.
The work within this project receives financial support from the Formas project (”Kvävefix)”, the Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning (grant no. 214-2013-1449)
