Impact of changing climate on biogeochemical cycling in the North Sea and Baltic Sea region - part 2
Title: Impact of changing climate on biogeochemical cycling in the North Sea and Baltic Sea region - part 2
SNIC Project: SNIC 2014/8-36
Project Type: SNAC Large
Principal Investigator: Markus Meier <markus.meier@smhi.se>
Affiliation: Swedish Meteorological and Hydrologcal Institute
Duration: 2014-07-01 – 2015-07-01
Classification: 10501 10509 10502
Homepage: http://www.baltex-research.eu/ecosupport
Keywords:

Abstract

A regional, fully coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean-ecosystem model has been developed to assess climate variability and climate change in past and futures climates in the North Sea and Baltic Sea region. The model is based on two existing multi-component models RCA4-NEMO (atmosphere-ice-ocean) and NEMO-SCOBI (ice-ocean-ecosystem) that have been developed and validated. The model has been forced by lateral boundary data either from the global re-analysis ERA-40 for 1961-2009 or from global climate models (GCMs) for 1961-2099. An ensemble of scenario simulations has been performed using two GCMs and two greenhouse gas emission scenarios as forcing to estimate uncertainties. To assess the uncertainty of the ensemble more accurately the ensemble will be extended with four additional members that represent two additional GCMs. The extended biogeochemical model for the North Sea and Baltic Sea NEMO-SCOBI with high horizontal resolution was successfully implemented and tested during phase 1 of the project. However, due to a lack of time the climate scenarios with the ecosystem model have not been completed yet. Hence, during the second phase of this project the coupled ecosystem model will be used to study the combined effects of climate change and nutrient load scenarios on nutrient, oxygen and chlorophyll concentrations. Model results will help managing the marine environment. Climate change adaptation information on changing water temperature, sea ice, salinity, currents, storm surges, coastal erosion, flooding, wind waves, etc. will be highly relevant.